Bitcoin is having a tremendous start to the year. It holds well above the $30,000 and finds bids on every dip.
By now, even the ones that did not hear of Bitcoin so far suddenly have an interest. For long-term holders or hoarders, as they call themselves, the recent rally is just the beginning of a new journey.
The journey to $300,000 and beyond. How long will it take? Not much longer. According to a study that considers the price action after the previous halvings, Bitcoin should reach $286,000 by October 17, 2021.
That is not a typo!
Bitcoin Holders Having Much Higher Targets
The picture above shows a predictive model based on what Bitcoin did after the previous halvings. Projecting the model into the future and looking at the average growth after the previous halvings, gives some astonishing levels – $100k by April this year, almost $400k by May, and $300 by October.
Before getting too excited, look at the left side of the chart too. The dark-blue area represents the growth range defined by the previous halvings. Effectively, it means that for the model to remain valid or to keep its predictive capability, the price of Bitcoin must remain inside the defined ranges. It may hover above or below the average growth, but it must stay inside the range. For December 31st, 2020, the model suggested an average of $41,000 – Bitcoin missed it by a thread.
Are these projections unrealistic? What is Bitcoin, after all?
Some say it is the monetary future of the world. Some others compare it with religion – it has a founder (i.e., Satoshi), believers (i.e., hodlers) – two essential elements. And some others say that Bitcoin is nothing but a complicated Excel spreadsheet.
Whatever Bitcoin is, one of the three or all of them, it does do one thing – consumes enormous amounts of electricity. At the current rate, Bitcoin consumes more electricity, enough to power a country the size of Pakistan, with hundreds of millions of people.
Truth be said, Bitcoin can rise to $1M. This is what happens when too many people chase a few coins. But if history tells us something, there are some bubbles one may want to study before bidding for something that so far has little or no use (e.g., tulip mania).