The week ahead is a short one due to the Good Friday holiday, but it doesn’t mean that traders should not pay attention to the price action. While the economic calendar is light, this is the NFP week after all, so the focus shifts to the last day of the week. Also, the first quarter of the year ends in a couple of days, so the price action during the main fixings of the week is tremendously important.
Key Events for the Week Ahead
Besides the NFP, the week is light in economic events, but traders should be careful with the positioning. The problem is that the end of the month and the quarter comes in a couple of days, and so the price action may see increased volatility, especially during the main fixing times of the day.
The British pound started the week on a high note. The EURGBP cross just broke a major technical level as a descending triangle ended, pushing the market lower. M4 money supply today pushed the pound higher, but the advance is most likely due to the end of the quarter rebalancing.
On Wednesday, the final GDP in the United Kingdom will offer traders a clue about the state of the U.K. economy in the aftermath of Brexit. Also, we will have the first glimpse into the U.S. jobs market, as the ADP or private payrolls are due.
Crude oil traders are keeping an eye on the Suez Canal and the disruptions in the global supply chain caused by the ship still blocking it. On Thursday, the OPEC-JMMC meeting starts, and that will put pressure on market’s volatility as well.
However, the main event of the trading week is the NFP next Friday. Despite the fact that it is a bank holiday, the economic data will be released as scheduled. The market participants expect the U.S. economy to add over 600k new jobs and the unemployment rate to drop to 6% from the previous 6.2% level.
Considering the impressive vaccination pace (it reached 3.5 million doses a day recently), we should not be surprised to see even more jobs created as the world’s largest economy reopens. As such, the dollar should remain bid on every dip.