Today begins the ECB Forum on Central Banking – a landmark event for the European Central Bank, albeit taking place online due to coronavirus restrictions. Usually held in Sintra, Portugal, the event brought together ECB watchers as well as central bankers from around the world. Not once, the ECB President made important remarks at Sintra, remarks that shaped the future evolution of the Euro.
Once again, 2020 is a special year due to the pandemic. As such, this year’s ECB event will mostly consist of virtual speeches by central bankers and a few economic papers presented.
Nevertheless, the ECB President Lagarde will speak at least a couple of times. For instance, today she will hold the opening remarks. Powell from the Fed and Bailey from the Bank of England will also participate in the days of the forum, so traders might expect some increased market volatility as we head into the middle of November trading.
The focus for traders is to see if the ECB hints at future monetary developments. The central bank already pre-committed to ease the monetary policy some more in December – the question is by how much and in which way?
Events to Watch at the ECB Forum
Besides the introductory remarks from Lagarde, today the ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos will hold a presentation about de-globalization, value chains, and the COVID-19 impact. Any remarks on the specific measures the ECB is preparing should create volatility in the Euro pairs.
Later today Philip Lane, the ECB’s Chief Economist and Member of the Executive Board talks about inflation objectives. This is the same Lane that verbally intervened when the EURUSD traded above 1.20 and the one that made sure the markets understood the ECB message in October by posting a blog post the next day after the ECB press conference. In other words, if there is one speech traders want to watch or to look for a reaction from the Euro pairs, this is the one.
The main panel every trader wants to watch is the one involving the heads of the most important central banks in the world. Scheduled for Thursday, the panel is moderated by a Financial Times editor and at the discussion will participate Lagarde from the ECB, Powell from the Fed, and Bailey from the Bank of England.
If markets are due to move this week based on some exogenous factors related to policymakers, this is the time to move – 17:45 CET.