The pandemic stole the show this year as it blew away everyone’s plans. Businesses faced unprecedented challenges, and so did governments. In light of the positive vaccine news the world received this November, here is a timeline of what lies for the months ahead.
Such a timeline is crucial for planning and budgeting for the next year as it shows how fast societies can return to a lifestyle closer to pre-crisis levels. As the chart below reveals, already from December, there are over 200 million doses ready to be deployed, should the regulators give their blessing.
Testing, Testing, and More Testing
An interesting thing was revealed recently related to this virus and the race to a vaccine. As it turns out, Moderna, one of the companies that announced a vaccine this month, had developed it already since March. How come we are in December, and no vaccine is available yet? The answer comes from testing and for all the steps required to get approval, despite using the “fast” route for that.
By late December and early January, Moderna should get approval for its vaccine, and the distribution might start. The wider scale distribution of all three vaccines is expected to happen during the first six months of the next year. From that moment on, assuming everything goes well, the pandemic should take a step back.
Other companies are also involved in the race for an effective vaccine. Therefore, the chances are that into the second half of next year, there will be more vaccines available both in the number of doses as well as in the number of marketable vaccines.
Judging by this timeline, the first two quarters of 2021 remain challenging. Because of the ray of hope brought by the pharmaceutical companies, governments may impose even tougher restrictions in the months ahead.
Governments have already contracted doses of all three vaccines, and now the focus is on creating the necessary infrastructure. It would be ironic to have a vaccine and not a proper system in place to effectively use it.
Despite the good news regarding the vaccines, the economic recovery remains long and uneven. Years will pass until economies may claim back the lost ground. However, if the health crisis comes to an end in 2021, the bounce from the recession may be one of the strongest ever recorded.