An Important trading week ahead, as is always the case when the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is scheduled. Every first Friday of the month, traders pay special attention to the US labor market, as it offers clues about the state of the economy and what the Fed might do next. This time, due to the 4th of July holiday, the NFP is out one day earlier.
The week ahead is particularly important because the end of the trading month is Tuesday, and flows are likely to create volatility on the FX market. Moreover, besides the NFP, other economic data is worth watching, both from the United States and other major economies.
Economic Events to Consider This Week
The week starts with GBP traders on high alert as Governor Bailey delivers a speech at the Climate Financial Risk Forum today. While he only delivers opening remarks, the GBP currency pairs often move aggressively when the head of the Bank of England “hits the wires.”
The Canadian GDP is due Tuesday, and traders have the chance to see the impact the COVID-19 is having on the Canadian economy. The expectations are that the GDP shrank 10.5% last month, and any deviation from the forecast should create volatility in the Canadian pairs.
Another week, another testimony from the Fed’s Chair. This week Fed’s Powell testifies in front of the House Financial Services Committee, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin accompanies him. It would be interesting to see if there is anything new when compared with the previous testimony, especially in terms of the Treasury’s intentions regarding the pile of cash hoarding and the future debt issuance.
ADP (Private Payrolls) and the FOMC Minutes will steal the show on Wednesday, as traders begin the warm-up before the NFP the next. Traders’ focus is on what the job data shows in relation to the previous month. The positive surprise in both the unemployment rate and the jobs number we saw last month may be the start of a recovery or just a temporary glitch. In both cases, the market’s volatility is likely to rise as investors will have a clearer picture regarding the virus’s impact on the US labor market and economic performance.
Expect volatility to decrease significantly going into the weekend, as US banks are on holiday on Friday. Therefore, expect a short week ahead, with the price action packed in four busy days.